KAMALA, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S BURDEN:  The Democratic worries about Joe Biden are obvious enough.  And more and more Democrats are stating them publicly.  But there's a very special worry, and her name is Kamala Harris.  She may be Biden's greatest political life insurance policy.  If the Dems would dump Biden, they get Harris.  That thought does not leave the Democrats jumping for joy.  From pundit and pollster Nate Silver: 

In response to Monday’s newsletter on the electoral and substantive risks posed to Democrats by Biden’s age, commenter Brian Want said something that I’ve thought about a lot too:

I wonder how much of the concern about Biden would be alleviated if he had a different Vice President. I understand that, for political reasons, he cannot replace Harris. And of course his age would be an issue no matter what. But if she had better favorables, it might be easier for skeptical Dems and hesitant independents to assuage their worries by saying to themselves, "Well, if Biden dies, we are in good or possibly even better hands."

Unfortunately, I don't think many people beyond the fervent Dem base feel that way about the ticket. It also makes me wonder if/when we've ever had a VP who was notably more popular than their president.

Leaving aside the question about whether a VP has ever been more popular than their president, it’s remarkable how little enthusiasm there is about the prospect of a Harris candidacy or presidency. I’m not particularly well-connected among Democratic Party establishment types — it’s just not my crowd. But between the conversations I have had with people in those circles and my “normie D” friends, I don’t think I ever heard a single person advocate that Biden should settle for one term and let Harris run instead. Hell, even in her column that did advocate for Biden to step down, New York Times columnist Michelle Goldberg — who I find to be a consistently thoughtful reader of progressive sentiment — conspicuously mentioned that the alternative didn’t have to be Harris, citing Harris’s poor polling.

How much is the perception that Harris would be an electoral liability grounded in reality? One always has to be concerned that perceptions of “electability” can be skewed against women candidates, an idea that was probably reinforced among Democrats by Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016.3

Still, Harris fares meaningfully worse against Trump than Biden does in polls.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's solid analysis.  Look at the situation we're in:  The Republican Party is led by a larger-than-life former president who could probably win a solid victory but is facing more than 90 legal charges.  The Democrats are led by an obviously fragile president who most voters think shouldn't even run again.  And...his logical successor is what Hollywood used to call "box office poison."

Ain't politics grand?

September 7, 2023